Record capacity is ready, will the freight rate drop?

Time: 2021-07-12

According to the analysis of Sea-Intelligence, in the next 12 months, the shipping company plans to deploy an additional capacity of about 100,000 teu.

Especially for trans-Pacific routes, the total supply capacity will be pushed up to the peak of 644,000 teu in a week from August 16th.

It is predicted that the shipping capacity between Asia and Europe will reach a peak of 491,700 teu/week in the coming weeks.

In recent months, the container market has been dragged down by delays, bottlenecks in many ports and high freight charges, so shipping companies have long predicted that the peak season will further aggravate the already difficult situation in the container market.

Compared with 2019, the supply of container capacity increased significantly this year. Sea-Intelligence estimates that the total growth rate in the first 11 weeks of the third quarter is 32.9% compared with the same period in 2019.

Sea-Intelligence predicts that the capacity between Asia and the west coast of the United States will increase by 33.6% compared with 2019, the capacity to the east coast of the United States will increase by 15%, and the capacity between Asia and Europe will increase by 22.7%

Asia-US West Coast capacity increased by 33.6%

Asia-the east coast of the United States has increased its capacity by 15%

Asia-Europe capacity increased by 22.7%

In the first half of this year, the global orders for new container ships reached 208, with a value of US$ 16.3 billion, nearly double the annual orders in 2020.

Liner companies and shipowners frequently order new ships, which also shows an optimistic attitude towards the future container shipping market.

However, this round of large-scale ship booking will also face the problem of centralized delivery of capacity in the next two to three years.

At that time, it is still unknown whether the container transportation market can absorb such a large capacity, whether the market demand is still at a high level and whether it will bring a new round of excess capacity.

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